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◆ Rest vs Result · Mercury ◆

Does Rest
Win Games?

Each dot is a completed Phoenix Mercury game. Horizontal: the rest edge going into tip-off (positive = PHX fresher). Vertical: point differential (positive = PHX won). Click dot for game details.

-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10+10+20+30+40+50+60+70+80-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-5+5+10+15+20+25+30+35+40+45+50← Opp more rested · Rest edge (Fatigue Index) · PHX more rested →← PHX loss · Point differential · PHX win →FRESH · WIN · 6TIRED · WIN · 4FRESH · LOSS · 14TIRED · LOSS · 11

When fresher: won 30% (6–14) · when more tired: won 27% (4–11)

Correlation r = 0.11 · weak · best-fit slope +0.04 pts per rest-point · n = 39